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2008年5月11日星期五 It's Sunday 11th May, 2008.
對芸芸眾生來說 For millions of people,
不過又是尋常的一天罷了 it's just another ordinary day.
其間 Meanwhile,
世界各地的地震監測站 at earthquake monitoring stations around the world,
也沒有任何異常報告 there's nothing special to report.
沒人知道 24小時之後 What no-one knows is that 24 hours later,
一場極其嚴重的自然災害即將來襲 an extraordinary natural disaster is going to strike.
大規模的救援行動正在進行 A massive rescue operation is under way...
今晨7點28分 強烈震波席捲亞洲 .. 7.28 this morning, sending shock waves around Asia.
一場7.8級地震襲擊了四川省 .. A magnitude of 7.8 struck Sichuan Province...
一場劇烈的大地震 An enormous earthquake tears
在中國西部的四川省突然發生 into Sichuan Province in Western China.
超過5千萬人受災 Over 50 million people are affected.
造成近7萬人死亡 500萬人無家可歸 Five million lose their homes and 70,000 die.
這一切都是因為目前的科學水準 And all because science can't answer
尚無法回答這個看似簡單的問題 what seems like a simple question.
為何無法預測地震
為何無法預測地震
為何無法預測地震
在過去的100年裡 In the last 100 years,
地震造成超過100萬人喪生 earthquakes have killed over a million people.
而隨著世界人口的不斷增長 And with the growth in the world's population
科學家預計 scientists predict
本世紀地震死亡人數將會是原來的10倍 that this century might see ten times as many deaths.
為什麼我們不能預測 So why can't we work out when and where
下一場強震發生的時間和地點 the next big quake is going to happen?
似乎我們在地震預測上研究越多 Well, the more work we do on earthquake prediction
預測地震卻變得越困難 the more difficult it seems it's going to be.
你開始以為自己看出其模式並理解其規律 You start to think you see patterns and understand them
從而要試圖更進一步 and then when you try to play the game forward
尋找這些模式時 and look for those patterns,
就是永遠都沒法成功 it just hasn't ever panned out.
如果你是一名地震學者 If you were a seismologist
而且知道如何預測地震 and you knew how to predict earthquakes,
那才叫實至名歸 er, you've arrived.
地震預測為何會如此困難 So why is earthquake prediction so difficult?
而科學界又在做些什麼 And what is science doing
來對抗這自然之力呢 to overcome this force of nature?
如果你想瞭解地震的話 If you want to know about earthquakes,
那就來這裡 this is the place to come -
加利福尼亞 California.
加州號稱美國的黃金之州 American's golden state
卻始終籠罩在大地震的陰影之下 lives in the constant shadow of an enormous earthquake,
也正因為此 他們在地震研究上 and because of this they throw more money
投入的資金 比其他任何地方都多 into studying these disasters than anywhere else.
這項研究的核心機構 At the heart of this effort
是美國地質勘探局 is the United States Geological Survey,
地震監測的中樞機構 the nerve centre of earthquake monitoring.
這幅地圖顯示了 This is a map showing
上周以來全球發生的地震 the global earthquakes of the last week
無論何時看這張地圖 Any time you look at this picture
大致情況都會 there's going to be aspects of it
跟這十分相近 that are gonna look a lot like this.
你會看到加州這裡分佈[特別密集] You're gonna see this distribution down California
因為這張地圖上標出了 because this map is showing
加州發生的較小震級的地震 smaller magnitude earthquakes in California.
加州這裡有自己專門的監測台網 We are running our own networks here
紅色表示剛剛有地震發生 The red shows that we've just had an earthquake,
地震位於日本的北端 this is at the Northern end of Japan.
一般日本每週都會發生 There's usually something in Japan every week
強到足以在這顯示出來的地震 that's large enough to show up here.
南太平洋地區是目前 The South Pacific is one of the
活躍的地震帶之一 active areas of the world right now.
還可以看到這些分散分佈點 You'll see a few things spread around,
亞洲的這帶區域 總是有地震發生 somewhere through Asia essentially all the time.
對於像露西•鐘斯的地震學者來說 For seismologists like Lucy Jones,
地震為何如此頻繁 it's no longer a mystery
已不再是個謎了 why the earth suffers so many quakes.
構成地殼的各個構造板塊 The tectonic plates that make up the world's crust
相互擠壓 grind against each other,
逐漸累積起巨大的壓力 building up huge amounts of stress.
壓力造成了被稱之為斷層的裂縫 The stress produces cracks known as faults.
有斷層的地方 Wherever there's a fault,
總有一天會有地震發生 there might one day be an earthquake.
我們知道地震的發生 We know that earthquakes happen
是因為地殼中逐漸累積的壓力 because stress builds up in the crust
最終克服了摩擦力 突然釋放 and finally you overcome the friction and you slip suddenly.
其實 就好比打響指 Actually, an analogy is snapping your fingers.
當你打響指時 When you snap your fingers
兩個面接觸摩擦 you have two surfaces in frictional contact.
而現在我想說明的是 But, all right, now I'm trying to say
在某一微秒時手指將會動起來 what micro-second they're going to move on
而這恰恰就是 and that's going to be exactly
摩擦力被克服的那一時間點 what point the friction is overcome.
這其中經歷了很多的過程 That's,There's a lot of processes going on there.
但即便是科學家知道 But even though scientists know
地震形成的原因和發生地點 how and where earthquakes happen,
對最關鍵的一個問題 卻仍無法作答 the question they can't answer is the one that matters most.
5月11日那天 你有沒想到 So on May the 11th did you think
中國會發生一場大地震 there was going to be a big earthquake in China?
不 在5月11日 沒人說過 No. There's nobody who on May 11th said
馬上就會發生大地震 there's gonna be an earthquake.
倒是有不少人在5月13日說 There are plenty of people on May 13th said
我兩天前就知道 會有這場地震 "I really did know this two days earlier. "
這跟幾十年預測派克菲爾德地震那次 是兩回事 It's a far cry from the picture of just couple of decades ago.
這裡是派克菲爾德 This is Parkfield,
加州中部的一個小村落 a tiny hamlet in the middle of California.
人跡罕至 居民更是少之又少 Few people ever come here, and even fewer stay.
但是這座村莊位於 But this village lies on
惡名昭著的聖安地列斯斷層的頂部 top of the infamous San Andreas Fault,
而且曾一時被認為是 and once looked like it held the key
瞭解地震的關鍵地 to understanding earthquakes.
故事要從一隊由約翰•朗拜領導的地質學家 It all began when a team of geologists led by John Langbein
發現派克菲爾德的一些反常現象說起 noticed something unusual about little Parkfield.
上世紀70到80年代初 人們發現 It was, er, in the '70s and early '80s it was recognised
連續數次的六級地震 that there was a sequence of magnitude six earthquakes
反復發生在聖安地列斯斷層帶同一段斷層上 that repeated the same stretch of the San Andreas Fault
每次地震間隔20多年 every 20-odd years
所以不用多想就能推斷說 and it didn't take too much imagination to extrapolate and say
下一次地震應該會發生在80年代後期 the next one ought to be in the late '80s.
派克菲爾德一直飽受地震侵襲 The village had always suffered from earthquakes,
而這些地震遵循一條非常獨特的規律 but these quakes followed a very distinct pattern.
朗拜的團隊決定利用派克菲爾德 Langbein's team decided to use Parkfield
進行一次大膽而空前的實驗 for a bold and unprecedented experiment.
來研究地震發生前 To see what happened to the ground
地面的變化 before an earthquake struck.
由於估計地震會在 Estimating that the quake would occur
1987到1993年間發生 between 1987 and 1993,
大量地質學家湧入派克菲爾德 scores of geologists descended onto Parkfield.
他們來到鎮上 設立起工作室設置好設備 They came to town and they set up shop with instruments,
他們算是隱居其中 and they're sort of hidden away and tucked away
所以並不顯眼 so they're not that obvious
但人數確實很多 but there's a lot of them out there.
而目的就是準備好設備 And the idea was to have the instruments ready
收集下次地震的第一手資料 to catch the next earthquake red-handed.
這些地質學家所希望看到的 Well, what you're hoping to see,
就好比是折斷一根棍子 the analogy is a stick breaking,
你長時間彎曲這根棍子 so in the long term you're bending the stick,
看著它一點點變形 you see it, er, deform
然後也許棍子斷裂前的那一刹那 and then maybe just before the stick actually goes snap
你會聽到 哢哢哢 或類似的聲音 you'll hear "Crack crack crack" Or something like that.
現在既然已經縮小了時間範圍 Now that they had narrowed down the time window
而且知道哪裡會發生地震 and knew where it was going to strike,
這可謂科學史上即時觀測地震的最好時機 this was science's best chance yet to see an earthquake in action
數百萬美元的資金湧入來資助這項研究 Millions of dollars flooded in to fund the research.
他們現在只需耐心等待 All they had to do now was just sit and wait.
這座小屋就是美國美國地質勘探局的 This ranch house is the high-tech outpost
科學家們的一座高科技監測站 for a team of scientists from the US Geological Survey.
他們每天早上都查看精密感測器 Every morning they check sophisticated sensors,
尋找地震將要發生的前兆跡象 looking for signs that the Earth is ready to rumble.
派克菲爾德埋了多少儀器 So how many instruments are buried here in Parkfield?
有點數不過來 You know, it's a little hard to count.
大概有兩三百吧 There's probably about two to three hundred.
我們裝備了蠕變儀 來測量斷層滑動距離 We had some creepmeters that measure fault slip,
還有一些地質化學實驗設備 some geo-chemical experiments,
應變計 極點定位系統 strain metres, pole positioning system.
而對斷層本身 And on the fault line itself,
則由攝像機進行不間斷錄影 TV cameras are constantly recording.
這些設備會提供完美的... The instruments may provide a perfect...
隨著1993年的到來 As 1993 approached,
地質學家們開始興奮起來 excitement mounted amongst the geologists.
這五年來 For five years
科學家們一直致力於為93年地震的 scientists have been preparing this experiment
實驗作準備 for the quake of '93.
現在萬事俱備只欠東風 Now that it's built,they're hoping it will come.
但隨後 1993年安然無恙地過去了 But then, 1993 passed without incident.
94年 '94.
95年 '95.
一直到96年 '96.
地震仍未發生 There was still nothing.
我們的預測基本上 怎麼說呢... Our guess was basically, what you'd call...
太大膽或者太樂觀了 um, ambitious or optimistic.
直到2004年9月28日 It wasn't until September 28th 2004
地震終於來襲了 that the earthquake finally struck,
而當它來臨時 and when it came,
並不像科學家所希望的那樣 it wasn't what the scientists were hoping for.
斷層一直悄無聲息 It was like the fault was quiet quiet quiet
然後突然斷裂了 and then it broke,
可以說是一個相當令人失望的結果 and it was sort of, it was a fairly negative result.
我們一直在等待時機想利用設備 You know, we were sort of waiting to catch that precursor
捕獲前兆跡象 但卻什麼都沒有發生 with all these instruments, and nothing happened.
沒有找到能夠預測地震的信號 Instead of finding signals that might predict an earthquake,
相反 所有派克菲爾德實驗結果似乎都 all that the Parkfield experiment seemed to prove
證明了這種自然災害 was that these natural disasters
超乎想像地複雜 were far more complex than anyone had ever imagined.
實驗結果被認為是失敗的 You know it was sort of taken as a negative result
有人開始說 and some people were saying
可以蓋棺論定了 "Time to put the nail in the coffin.
地震預測根本沒戲 "Earthquake prediction is dead. "
我認為這樣說有些極端 And I think that's a bit extreme.
有一種可能是不同次地震是不一樣的 One possibility is that earthquakes are different.
66年那次的前震很劇烈 In '66 there was quite a large foreshock
而34年地震也有大規模前震 and in '34 there was quite a large foreshock
而且在這兩次地震中 and in both of those cases
震動從這裡開始向那邊移動 the quake started up here and went that way.
可是2004年地震沒有前震 And in 2004 there was no foreshock
它是從南邊開始朝對向移動 and it started in the South and went the other way.
所以地震是複雜的 So earthquakes are complicated.
許多人以為通過派克菲爾德地震預測 Many people thought that Parkfield might solve
能從此永遠解開地震預測之謎 the mystery of earthquake prediction for good.
但事實是 But instead
科學界的地震預測 又得重頭開始 it was back to the drawing board for science.
真該死 Holy ***!
真該死 Holy ***.
我的老天 Oh, my God.
活見鬼 Holy cow.
一年又一年 And as every year goes past,
更多的地震接踵而至折磨我們的星球 more earthquakes continue to plague our planet.
離開這 離開這 Out here, out here!
-電子顯微鏡怎麼了 -摔爛了 - What happened to the telescope? -Destroyed.
快跑 跟上 Go, go, go, come on!
會倒塌的 It may fall.
我錄下來了 I got it on tape!
真見鬼 Holy ***.
我都錄下來了 I got it on tape.
走 快走 Go, come on.
僅在過去十年間 In the last decade alone,
在土耳其 印度 伊朗和巴基斯坦 tens of thousands have died in Turkey,
就有數萬人喪生 India, Iran and Pakistan.
而且東南亞大海嘯 And it was an earthquake that caused
也是由地震引起的 the Boxing Day Tsunami,
2004年 25萬人在這場海嘯中喪生 killing a quarter of a million people in 2004.
之後在2008年5月 悲劇再次發生 Then in May 2008, it happened again.
這次是在中國四川省 This time in Sichuan Province, China.
災難過去6個月後 Six months after the disaster,
地質學家麥克•艾利斯遠赴中國 geologist Mike Ellis is travelling to China
來調查這次地震 to investigate the earthquake.
麥克以前曾在這一地區工作過 Mike has worked in this region before
所以他確信 so he always knew
這裡遲早會有一場大規模地震發生 there could be a major quake here one day
可他沒想到在有生之年能親眼看到 but he didn't think he'd ever get to see it in his lifetime.
我追蹤過一些地震 比如 I've chased quite a few earthquakes,as we call it,
臺灣地震等等 um, Taiwan downwards.
像這樣的大地震在海洋裡時有發生 Big earthquakes like this happen in the ocean all the time
當然你沒法去那裡看 but of course you can't go there to see them
所以從學術和科學角度上講 so academically and scientifically
能來觀測這樣一次地震非常難得 it's a treat to come to an earthquake like this
當然這也是一段發人深省的經歷 but of course it's a very sobering experience as well.
對於四川省的居民來說 For the inhabitants of Sichuan Province,
5月12日星期一是尋常的一天 Monday May 12th was a day like any other.
許多人在上班 他們的孩子在上學 Many people were at work, their children in school,
而其他人則是在外面享受陽光 while others were simply out enjoying the sunshine.
他們完全不知道自己腳下的大地 Little did they know that the ground beneath their feet
即將會被一道 在50秒內波及 was about to be ripped apart by a rupture
100公里的裂縫所撕開 that would travel 100km in just 50 seconds.
大規模搶險救災行動正在進行 A massive rescue operation is underway after a powerful..
數千人喪生 .. thousands are killed
一場大規模地震襲擊了中國西南部之後 after a massive earthquake hit South West China.
裡氏7.9級 這是近10年內 At magnitude 7.9, it was one of the world's
世界上最強烈的地震 most powerful earthquakes in decades.
然而在地震過後 But even after the shaking had stopped,
悲劇才剛剛開始 the real drama was only just beginning.
整座城鎮化為廢墟 As entire towns collapsed,
數千人被壓死 thousands of people were crushed to death
或被墜落的石頭砸死 or killed by falling masonry.
而強烈的餘震 And strong aftershocks,
有些甚至超過6級 some higher than magnitude six,
不斷侵襲著整個地區 continued to strike across the region
導致傷亡和破壞的增加 causing new casualties and damage.
本次搶險救援行動規模空前 The rescue operation is one of the biggest ever.
政府出動5萬軍隊... 50,000 troops have been mobilised...
沉痛悼念四川地震遇難者 .. mourning for victims of the Sichuan earthquake.
搶險救災仍在繼續 Rescue work continues
但是找到的生還者為數不多 but very few victims are being found alive.
數月過去 四川仍是一片廢墟 Months on, and Sichuan still lies in ruins,
而麥克希望找到埋藏於 but Mike hopes to find answers
廢墟和隆起的土地之下的答案 among the broken houses and upturned soil.
他將與自五月以來 一直致力於標注斷裂帶的 He'll be travelling with Jing Liu, a Chinese earthquake geologist
中國地震地質學家劉靜[音]一同前往 who's been mapping the rupture since May.
北川縣城 The county town of Beichuan
距地震震中138公里 is 138km from the earthquake's epicentre,
但卻是受災最嚴重的地區之一 but it lies in one of the worst-affected areas.
1萬2千人在這裡喪生 12,000 people died here,
是全縣總人口的四分之三 three quarters of the population.
這是麥克在震後首次回到這裡 Coming back for the first time since the earthquake,
這片曾經熟悉的土地 讓他深深震撼 Mike is struck by what's happened to the place he once knew well.
非常慘重 It's very sobering.
不願看到這一幕 真的 Um, not something that you want to see, really.
河那邊 以前有許多樹 還有個茶館 On the river, there were some trees and a cafe down there,
我曾在那打過麻將 I used to sit and play Mahjong.
現在完全被沉積物淹沒 Now it's completely chock full of sediment and, er...
麥克曾來這裡 Mike came here before
標注這個地區的部分地震斷層 to map some of the earthquake faults in this area.
我認為這個地方的斷裂 This is one place where I think the rupture
與我們標注出的斷層位置相當吻合 did coincide quite well with the fault, the mapped fault.
我們沿著這裡 We mapped along there and
穿過河谷 一直標注到那邊 then through the valley and up over there.
通過標注斷層帶 By mapping faults,
麥克希望能預測到何地 Mike hopes to predict where
甚至何時 可能會再次發生地震 and even when an earthquake may strike again.
現在 是他多年來的最佳時機 Now he has his best opportunity in years.
最近發生的地震 The recent earthquake
顯示了從未發現過的斷層 has revealed faults never seen before.
雖然麥克身處的中國四川 Even though Mike is hundreds of kilometres
離印度亞洲版塊交界處幾百公里之遠 from the tectonic plate boundary between India and Asia,
這裡仍是個地震多發國家 this is major earthquake country.
該地區的地質圖顯示 Geological maps of the region suggest
有大量的斷層隱藏於 that there are thousands of faults
四川省周邊的山脈中 hidden in the mountain range that fringes Sichuan Province -
即龍門山 the Longmen Shan.
在這張大圖上可以看到 So here you can see the big picture of the India,
這裡就是所謂印度亞洲版塊衝撞區 Asia collision region I suppose you could call it.
白色表示高海拔地區 White area for a high elevation
黑色表示海拔較低的地區 and the darker areas are lower.
這裡就是喜馬拉雅弧形山脈 So here is the Himalayan arc,
印度板塊往上擠壓歐亞大陸 India of course, moving up into, into Eurasia,
以每年40到45毫米移動 and that's occurring about 40, 45mm per year,
板塊構造上來說 算是相當快的 which is pretty fast in plate tectonic terms.
從這裡往下是一系列的逆沖斷層 There's a series of thrust faults that come down
在喜馬拉雅一帶 and around the Himalayas.
這是板塊交界處 This is the the plate boundary
這裡就是龍門山 and so there's Longmen Shan
它面朝平坦而海拔相對較低的四川盆地 and it's facing the very flat and relatively low Sichuan basin.
從地理上看 這裡的確是個神秘莫測的地方 It actually is, geologically this is a wonderful enigma.
發現一個從未被研究過的地方總是讓人興奮 It's always exciting to find a place that has not been explained yet.
我們一直在尋找一種能產生重大影響的東西 I think we're all looking for something that we can make an impact with.
在加州 Over in California,
大部分地圖標注工作已經完成 most of the mapping work has already been done.
這裡的科學家實在太清楚 Here, scientists are all too aware of the cost
不知道斷層位置所要付出的代價 of not knowing where the faults are.
他們的教訓來自1906年那場 Their wake-up call came in 1906,
將三藩市夷為平地的7.9級地震 when a magnitude 7.9 earthquake bought San Francisco to its knees.
大地震及其後的火災使數千人喪命 The violent shaking and fires afterwards killed thousands
城市嚴重被毀 and destroyed much of the city.
從此 整個加州學會居安思危 Ever since, the state has learned to live with the threat
隨時準備應對下一場大地震 that another major earthquake could strike at any time.
一百多年以後 Over 100 years later,
如今 加州已成為 California is now the place to be
全世界地震學家和地質學家的聚集地 for seismologists and geologists the world over.
倫敦沒有經歷過多少地震 There are not a whole lot of earthquakes in London, you know
發生的也都是些小地震 沒有研究價值 and the ones that happen are piddly and not worth studying.
所以我傾向於研究大地震 So in in my game where you need major things,
感興趣的是 you'd really like...
大於7級的地震 something bigger than a seven.
8級很好 9級就太棒了 Eight's nice, nine is terrific.
對人們來說不是好事 Not so good for people,
而對科學家來說卻是天大的好事 but terrific for the scientists.
羅傑•比爾漢生於倫敦 Roger Bilham was born in England
後移居美國 以就近研究聖安地列斯這樣的斷層 but moved to America to be nearer to faults like the San Andreas,
該斷層曾引發1906年的那場地震 cause of the 1906 earthquake.
看這裡 看看這個 So here look, have a look at this,
這個風景美麗地勢平坦的山谷 兩傍依山 this beautiful flat valley here with a hill on each side.
斷層就在下面正中的位置 The fault runs right down the middle
這裡在1906年的時候滑動了 and this slipped in 1906.
僅滑動了大約2米 It slipped only about two metres here,
等我們再往北走 那裡的滑動越來越大 as we get further north it slips increasingly more
到了三藩市北部 until you get north of San Francisco
那裡在1906年滑動了大約6米 where it becomes about six metres of slip in 1906.
通過繪製加利福利亞的斷層 By mapping out California's faults,
科學家們開始明白 scientists are beginning to understand
一個地方的微小滑動 how tiny slips in one place
是怎麼能導致其他地方一場大地震的 could lead to huge earthquakes somewhere else.
羅傑希望能通過發現一個細微跡象 Roger hopes to pick up a small sign
就可以預測地震 that might predict a future disaster.
他走遍一個又一個的斷層 He travels from fault to fault
檢查記錄自製的儀器的資料 checking on a collection of home-made instruments
這些儀器埋在地下 遍佈加利福利亞 that he's buried at sites up and down the state.
我把它們視為我的孩子 Well, I I consider them my babies.
你將它們種在地裡 You plant them in the ground
然後它們在這裡監測 雖然有些枯燥 and then they they live out they're rather dull
卻給我們傳遞了大量 but informative existence sending us information
關於這些奇妙斷層的運動資訊 about the movement of these wonderful faults.
是的 我非常享受 除了下雨的時候 So yes, I quite enjoy it, except when it rains,
不過倒不是經常下雨 and it doesn't do that much.
有時當地居民會朝你開槍 Ah, and sometimes the local people shoot at you,
這就不好玩了 which isn't such fun.
-什麼 -我在世界各地都工作過 - Sorry? - Well, yeah. I work all over the world,
只有加利福利亞 but California is the only place
他們真的想朝我開槍 where they really, really tried to shoot me,
大概為顯示他們的男子氣概 and, er, that's the sort of macho
加利福利亞的人出門都帶著槍 people that go around California with guns.
他們坐在這些有意思的斷層上 They sit on these interesting faults
不准你對它們進行測量 and they don't want you to measure them.
不可思議 Astonishing.
這裡的主人不會朝我們開槍吧 We're not going to get shot at by the owners here, are we?
-不 不會 -你確定 - No, not at all. - Sure?
是的 當然 他們很熱情的 Yes, absolutely, they're lovely people.
你這樣朝這個柵欄看去 OK, so if you can squint along this fence
你會發現它有些偏了 you will see it's offset.
而這個柵欄是在1906年地震之後安置的 Now this fence was put in after the 1906 earthquake,
所以這是發生在1906年以後的 so the offset has occurred since 1906.
我們通過對這條路的測量 And we know from measurements along the road
以及地面蠕變儀的測量 and from the creep meter in the the field
我們發現 that it's moving at
它正以每年0.25英寸的速度移動 about a quarter of an inch a year,
持續不斷地 當聖安地列斯斷層滑動 relentlessly, and when the San Andreas Fault slips,
路的這邊會朝南移動 this side of the road is going off to the South,
而路的這邊則朝北移動 this side of the road is going off to the North,
所以現在處於靜止 這裡與太平洋板塊相接 so this is stuck next, this is glued to the Pacific plate
你現在站在北美板塊上 and you're standing on the North American plate
正朝著墨西哥方向從我身邊飛馳而去 going away whizzing past me down sort of Mexico direction
我們去看看那些儀器 Let's go and visit the machine.
這是很重要的一個步驟 So this is the important step -
確定這些牛在它們該在的位置 check the bulls are in the right place.
就是在裡 這片草叢裡 So it's just over here in the grass.
我有時會擔心下麵有蛇 I sometimes worry there's a snake under here.
這次沒有 Not this time.
這有一點點 There is an element of, er,
像個荒謬的小發明 a Heath Robinson contraption about it.
它是個非常簡單的裝置 It's a very simple gadget,
一個裝了個鐵軸的圓柱容器 it's a cylinder with, um, a rod,
這根鐵軸從斷層的另一邊連過來 the rod is connected across from the other side of the fault.
當斷層滑動 When the fault slips
就會拉動這根鐵軸 it pulls this rod away
偏離這個金屬感應器 from the metal sensor.
它可拉伸的長度大約是 It has a range of about, er...
大約是30毫米 This one is about 30mm
這裡每年會有7毫米的滑動 and so because there's 7mm of slip each year,
大約每四年我會重設一次 about every four years I have to reset it.
不過 先要將資料下載下來 But first, download the data.
我把電腦拿出來 I'll get my computer out.
7毫米的滑移也許不算什麼 7mm of slip might not sound like much
但可能會帶來毀滅性的後果 but it could have a devastating effect.
在三藩市斷層以上150千米處 150km up the fault in San Francisco
構造板塊被卡住 the tectonic plates are locked,
下面積蓄的能量最後 and eventually this pent-up energy
會以地震的形式釋放 will be released in the form of an earthquake.
每一次 羅傑的儀器 Every time that Roger's machine
測量斷層的滑移 measures the fault slipping,
也被稱作蠕變 known as a creep event,
可以幫助計算 在這座城市下面 this may help to calculate the amount of stress
正在積聚的能量 that's building up beneath the city.
我們檢測到了蠕變現象 太高興了 Oh, we've got a creep event! How exciting.
這條黑線是... 你看見了嗎 The black line here is, er, can you see that OK?
這條黑線顯示 氣溫從仲夏 So the black line is the temperature decrease
開始下降 上下顛倒了 from mid-summer to... It's upside down, OK,
我們可以這樣來看 we could actually turn it up the other way
還是這樣吧 but let's do it like that,
氣溫的下降是由於季節的變化 so there's the temperature decreasing as a function of time
這個就是蠕變現象 and here is, er, a creep event
當斷層突然開始 where the fault suddenly starts slipping
以每秒幾毫米的速度滑移 at a few millimetres per second and
並持續一兩天 then over the next day or two,
實際上會連續好幾個星期 in fact continuing for several weeks.
就算你站在這個斷層上 Even if you'd been standing on the fault,
你都感覺不到 you wouldn't have noticed it
因為它非常緩慢 悄然無聲 cos it's really a very slow, quiet process.
所以 只有當人們將這種儀器 So until people have put
放到地裡 instruments like this on the ground,
否則我們無法知道這一切的發生 we had no idea that these things were occurring.
科學家已對加利福利亞的每個斷層進行了標注 Science has mapped every fault in California,
但是在中國 這項工作才剛開始 but in China, the process is only just beginning.
小魚洞鎮離震中42千米 Xiao Yu *** is 42km from the earthquake's epicentre.
曾經平坦的農地 What was once flat farmland
在5.12這天面目全非 was completely transformed on May 12th.
為了找到這個地方的斷層 To find the fault here,
麥克正在尋找地震陡坎 Mike's looking for earthquake scarps -
就是地貌的臺階 steps in the landscape
也就是被斷裂拱起的地方 where the rupture has lifted the ground up.
我現在所站的地方以前應是那個高度 This level I'm standing on right now used to be up there.
那足有2米到2.5米的高度 That's a good two to two and a half,
甚至可能有3米 possibly even three metres.
所以整個這一大片就是地震陡坎了 So that entire free surface is the earthquake scarp.
毫無疑問那裡很快要被砌上磚 And no doubt that will quickly be bricked up
你就無法再輕易地辨認出來 and you won't be able to distinguish it so easily.
另外 這也是個非常理想的地方 This is also a superb place, by the way,
來尋找明顯的偏移 如果有的話 for finding, um, unambiguous lateral offset, if there is any.
你看現在我站的地方 You can see where I'm standing,
有一個筆直的牆 我在這裡能看見 there's a nice straight wall, and I can see from here
這裡的偏移 自然偏移 that the offset,the natural offset here
大概有一米 is about about a metre,
大概離這面牆不到一米 maybe a little bit less than a metre to this wall,
所以實際上 這片牆原來是在這邊的 so essentially this wall here was that one back there.
在斷裂發生以前 Before the rupture actually happened,
可能是在這個位置 probably at this location
當時劇烈搖晃 岩石滾落 there was a lot of shaking and rolling
然後村莊的這一邊 and then this this side of the village
就像現在這樣被抬起 just rose up like this.
發生這一切大約需要 It takes about between 10,15, 20,
10 15 20秒 或許更久 maybe even more seconds to do that.
那是非常緩慢的 That's actually quite slow
如果你當時你站在這個位置 when you're standing here as an eyewitness
親眼目睹這一切 and seeing this thing just rise up like this
看著地面被隆起 現在整個村莊 out of the ground and then this entire part of the village
比以前高出1到2米 is now a metre to two metres higher.
很難想像這個地方以前是什麼樣子 It's hard to imagine what this place once looked like,
但是有一個村民留下了紀念 but one villager has kept a memento.
我非常喜歡家鄉的 I really liked the beautiful view
美麗景色 we had of the landscape here,
所以我就從我們家2樓拍下了這張照片 so I took this photograph from the first floor of our house.
在地震之前 這條路非常平坦 Before the earthquake the road used to be completely level.
地面也是 到處都是平坦的 The ground too, everywhere was level,
但現在向下沉了一兩米 but now it's dropped by one or two metres.
地面傾斜了 這太驚人了 The ground just slid down, it was amazing.
對於小魚洞鎮的人們 For the people of Xiao Yu ***,
2008年5月是他們第一次 May 2008 was the first time any of them
經歷這樣強烈的地震 had ever experienced a major earthquake.
但是麥克開始懷疑 But Mike is beginning to suspect
這裡還曾經發生過地震 that there have been other quakes here in the past.
這裡有兩點發現很重要 The two things that important here
就是地面高度的差異 is that the elevation difference between
我現在所站的地方 where I'm standing right here
和那個位置高度相差很大 and up there is significantly higher
比起斷裂的其他位置 than it was further along the the rupture
高度差距更大一些 and further back along the rupture that way
我們看到現在的地震陡坎非常不規則 we saw the modern earthquake scarp being very irregular
這個與那邊的非常相像 and this looks almost identical to that,
這一定暗示著什麼 so this is very suggestive.
我想自己走過去 So I would, I would love to be able to walk,
如果我能 if I could just
走得過去 walk up here a long way.
在麥克專業的眼光裡 To Mike's expert eye,
地貌的每一個凹凸 every rise and dip in the landscape
都會成為整部地震史的證據 could be evidence of a whole history of earthquakes.
就在這裡 So right here
這是個年代更久遠的地震陡坎 I'm standing on an old scarp
現在已經非常平緩了 that's very gentle now.
它在這一片仍然屬於 And it continues to be this sort of
丘陵的地形 hammocky topography in these fields,
所以這類舊的地震陡坎 so this sort of old scarp
以及這裡更明顯的特徵 and the much greater relief here
從這一點上我們可以知道 at this point would tell us
這就是曾經發生地震的地方 that this has been the place of an earthquake before
在那之前 可能還發生過幾次 and probably several before that too,
所以詳細標注這些斷層 so points to the importance
非常重要 of mapping these things in great detail.
但標注斷層並不總是這麼簡單的 But mapping out faults isn't always so straightforward.
麥克和劉靜順著斷裂 Mike and Jing have come to a valley
來到一個山谷 further along the rupture
這裡的地面隆起比小魚洞鎮高出兩倍 where the ground rose up twice as high as in Xiao Yu ***.
他們希望像這種大小的地震陡坎 They're hoping that a scarp this size
能夠給他們提供更多關於 will tell them more about earthquakes
以往地震 that have happened here in the past
以及將要發生的地震的資訊 and those that are yet to come.
但最近的暴風雨改變了地貌 But recent heavy storms have transformed the landscape.
你好 這以前是不是有個地震陡坎 Hello, was there an earthquake scarp here before?
是的 但是被衝垮了 Yes, but it was washed away -
我們的村也被衝垮了 our village was too.
大量泥土傾泄下來 山體的一部分垮塌了 Tons of earth fell down, part of the mountain just collapsed.
大概就是那裡 It's probably there,
不過不是河流過的地方 but not where the river has incised through it
但如果你順著它走 but if you follow it
往上走一點 那兒也許還有些殘餘部分 up a little bit there must be some remnants...
有可能 Maybe, maybe.
我希望是 I would hope so.
6米高的地震陡坎不會全部都消失了 A six-metre scarp can't disappear completely.
這就是那陡坎 That is the scarp.
來看看 你可以上去 Let's see, you can go up
我找找有草的地方 and I'll find this place for the grass.
今年九月以前 這裡地面有這麼高 Before this September the ground was like at this level
而這個平面過去在那上邊 and this level used to be lined up over where,
就是麥克站的地方 um, Mike is standing.
所以我現在站的地方 So I'm standing here on a surface
已和劉靜所站的位置不在一個平面了 that now is occupied by Jing down below there.
我左手邊這一塊地面被抬高6米 The ground on my left was pushed up six metres
並且還向右邊移了6米 and moved to the right by six metres as well,
因此整個山體正在縮小 so the mountains as a whole are shortening,
地殼也在縮小 並且左右移動 the crust is shortening and moving sideways
這種側向運動很輕微 and that sideways motion is small,
但卻是印度撞擊亞洲板塊的一個表徵 but it is an expression of India colliding into Asia.
我們現在看到的地貌 This landscape we're in now
是經過相當多次的地震所形成的 has been formed by many, many earthquakes,
成百上千次地震 hundreds and thousands of earthquakes.
儘管暴雨破壞了證據 Despite the damage from the storms,
麥克仍著手去瞭解 Mike is beginning to understand
這一特殊山谷的地震史 the history of earthquakes in this particular valley.
但這種證據正在很快消失中 But this evidence is fast disappearing.
顯然 隨著時間的推移 Obviously, over time,
任何一次地震留下的細微痕跡 the subtle signals for any specific earthquake
都會很快消失 disappears very quickly,
事實上 它不到6個月就消失了 and this has virtually disappeared in less than six months,
只要我們在山坡周圍尋找 so as we're scrabbling around the hillsides,
就可以不時地發現一些痕跡 we see signals every now and then,
但是這些資料很分散 but the data is very sparse,
很難把它們收集起來 very difficult to put together.
麥克等地質學家們希望 Geologists like Mike hope
通過測繪已發生的地震遺址 that by mapping the past,
能讓他們更進一步地預測未來的地震 they'll come closer to predicting the future.
但即便你知道測量從何處下手 But even if you know where to measure,
仍有一個關鍵因素使地震趨於複雜 every earthquake is complicated by a significant factor,
即地震的規模 how big it's going to be.
我們不清楚地震為何發生在今日 We don't know what makes an earthquake start today
而不是昨天 instead of yesterday.
我們也不知道它為何停止 We also don't know what makes it stop
而這決定著地震的規模 and that's what controls the size of the earthquake.
比如 3級的地震由一點開始爆發 A magnitude three starts at a point,
地殼從這一點開始滑動 you start to slip at a point
並產生了一個延伸的破裂前沿 and you have a rupture front that travels out
造成了斷層的更多滑動 and causes more of the fault to slip,
3級地震會延伸這麼遠 and in a magnitude three, you travel out this far.
5級地震的時候 延伸1至2千米 In a magnitude five, it travels out for a kilometre or two.
8級地震的時候 延伸500千米 In a magnitude eight, it travels out for 500 kilometres,
所以當我們去預測地震大小時 so when we're trying to predict what the earthquake will be
我們會說 它從這裡開始 we're saying, it starts here,
但它是在1千米後就停止呢 but does it stop after one kilometre,
還是在100千米後才停止 or does it stop after, um, 100 kilometres?
預測地震的規模是至關重要的 Predicting the size of an earthquake is essential.
每年 世界上都有數百萬地震發生 Millions of quakes happen all over the world each year,
但大部分地震都很微弱 甚至無法察覺 but the vast majority are too weak even to be felt.
對於科學界的真正挑戰 The real challenge for science
在於計算出這些小地震 is to work out when one of these little earthquakes
發展成為大災難的時刻 is going to develop into a major disaster.
人們不需要我們對每一個地震都作出預測 You don't want me to predict every earthquake,
今天在加利福利亞州發生的地震 there's going to be 50
也許就有50次 in California today.
人們需要我預測的是 You want me to predict
在我們每年記錄的三萬五千個地震中 which of the 35,000 we record each year
有哪一兩個是大到足以造成破壞的 is the one or two large enough to do some damage,
我們希望去做的 and really, what we want to do
也正是對那些5年或10年才發生一次的 is really predict just the one that happens
具有破壞性的地震作出預測 every five or ten years that does a lot of damage.
直擊今晚洛城地震現場 Live, Los Angeles tonight,
並作好了最壞的準備 battered and bracing for the worst.
加利福利亞州最近的一次破壞性地震 The last earthquake to do a lot of damage in California
發生在洛杉磯的一個郊區 北嶺 stuck in Northridge, a suburb of Los Angles,
發生於1994年1月 in January 1994.
震級6.7級 Measuring magnitude 6.7,
72人死亡 損失超過200億美元 it killed 72 people and caused over $20 billion in damage,
是美國歷史上造成經濟損失最大的自然災害 making it one of the costliest natural disasters in US history.
看起來地面在這裡斷裂 The earth is literally split here. '
城市被驚醒 遭遇噩夢般打擊 The city wakes up to a nightmare. '
然而 有人預測到了它的到來 But one man saw it coming.
弗拉基米爾•凱列斯勃洛克教授 Professor Vladimir Keilis-Borok,
87歲的俄國地球物理學家 an 87-year-old Russian geophysicist
任教于洛杉磯大學 at the University of Los Angeles
他研究出了一種預測地震的方法 has developed a way of predicting earthquakes,
具有相當高的準確性 with a surprisingly high level of accuracy.
從1992年起全世界發生的17次地震中 Out of 17 earthquakes worldwide which happened since '92,
我們預測到了12個 we have predicted 12.
地球的暴怒 'The Earth's fury
帶來了大火 洪水 還有恐懼 'unleashes fire, and flood, and fear.'
地震的預測方法 The prediction method
並非來自於地質學界 doesn't come from the world of geology,
而是來自數學理論的一個傑出分支 but from an extraordinary branch of maths...
混沌理論 Chaos Theory.
混沌理論探尋的是自然界中 Chaos theory seeks to find an underlying order
某些完全隨機事件的內在規律 in some of nature's most random processes.
氣象系統 Weather systems,
鳥類群集的方式 the way birds flock together,
甚至一棵樹上的樹葉分佈 or even the distribution of leaves on a tree.
地震看似毫無規律 There didn't seem to be any order to earthquakes,
但凱列斯勃洛克 but Keilis-Borok
召集了其他多個學科的科學家 brought together scientists from multiple disciplines
開始研究這個問題 to study the problem,
其中包括地震學家大衛•傑克遜 including seismologist David Jackson.
最基本的理論是 Well, the general theory is that
當地球處於一種混沌的狀態 when the earth is in a chaotic state,
將產生某些可被識別的特徵 there will be some features that can be recognised.
一般來說 And typically,
這些特徵存在於發生的較小地震裡 those features are in the smaller earthquakes that occur,
它又能引起多少小型地震 and how much a small earthquake brings with it,
以及緊接著發生的餘震呢 some immediate follow-on earthquake.
通過對加利福利亞州 Looking at some of California's
曾經發生過的大地震的研究 major earthquakes in the past,
加州大學小組認為 這些地震的模式 the UCLA team thought that they could see patterns
可以通過先發生的小地震得出 in the smaller quakes that preceded them.
今天 他們尋找類似的模式 Today, they look for similar patterns,
通過將小地震的震級大小和爆發時間 chains of small earthquakes linked
聯繫在一起 形成地震鏈 by their size and the time they strike.
一旦他們發現了和歷史資料 If they think they see a new chain
相匹配的新地震鏈 that matches their historical data,
小組就會發出地震警報 the group then issues an earthquake alarm.
有時 我們可以觀察到那些模式 Sometimes, humans can see the patterns and we propose
並且按照地震發生的方式 something that seems to us logical
按照我們的思維邏輯來提出建議 in terms of the way earthquakes behave,
然而有時 地震的模式太過複雜 but sometimes, their patterns are too complicated
人們就只能希望借助電腦 and the hope is that computers,
利用大量的資料 using vast amounts of data,
然後將資料和那些模式結合 and, er, combing the data for those patterns,
代替我們計算出結果 can out-think us in that particular way.
然而 研究地震的模式 But the patterns haven't always
並不總能作出準確的預測 led to accurate predictions.
在北嶺地震發生後9年 Nine years after Northridge,
凱列斯勃洛克小組宣佈 Keilis-Borok's team announced
在2004年9月5日 美國棕櫚泉附近 that a major earthquake would strike near Palm Springs
將發生一次大地震 by September 5th, 2004.
再一次 Once again,
這神秘的俄國人賭上了他的整個職業生涯 the enigmatic Russian was putting his career on the line.
然而這一次 地震沒有發生 But this time, nothing happened.
小組的研究工作 The team's work continues to be
繼續徘徊于成功和失敗之間 a mixture of success and failure,
但是凱列斯勃洛克堅信 but Keilis-Borok is confident
他的預測準確率可以提高 that he can improve his hit rate.
做到百分之百準確 There is no such thing
根本不可能 as 100% accuracy,
那是無稽之談 但是 It's go without exist, but
我們認為預測的準確性 we believe the accuracy can be increased
至少可以提高五個點 by a factor of at least five.
混沌理論和數學是否能解決 It remains to be seen if chaos theory and maths
地震預測的難題 還有待研究 are the answer to earthquake prediction.
與此同時 為了解決這一難題 In the meantime, science has been forced to explore other,
科學家們也嘗試著另闢蹊徑 sometimes stranger avenues,
其中有些可謂怪誕 to try and solve this problem.
很久以前 Since time began,
人們就發現 在地震到來之前數天或數小時 people have been reporting weird goings on in the days,
會出現一些奇怪的現象 or hours, before an earthquake.
突然發作的偏頭痛 Sudden upsurges in migraines...
地下水位的神奇變化 .. mysterious changes in ground water levels,
然而最怪異的現象 but perhaps the most bizarre phenomenon
來自動物 involves animals.
中國西南部的廣西省 Guangxi province, South West China.
這個農場位於一個地震預測 This farms lies at the centre of an intriguing experiment
實驗區的中心 to predict earthquakes...
驗證蛇能預測地震 .. using snakes.
在中國 我們稱這種蛇為龍 We call this snake Dragon,
或者地龍 or Earth Dragon, here in China.
在中國的文化裡 In Chinese culture,
我們認為自己是龍的傳人 we think of ourselves as children of the dragon,
所以我們沒有必要害怕蛇 so there is no need to be afraid of snakes.
江巍松[音]是當地地震局的負責人 Jiang Weisong, head of the local earthquake bureau,
他組建了一個小組 has a team monitoring these snakes
通過攝像頭24小時監視這些蛇 24 hours a day using webcams.
他們認為 It's thought that snakes
蛇在捕食時對獵物的感應方式 may be able to sense earthquakes in the same way
同樣可以用來感知地震 that they locate their prey.
通過它們的內耳感知大地的震動 Using their inner ears to pick up vibrations in the ground.
如果在120千米範圍內 If a small earthquake
發生了一次小地震 happens within 120 kilometres of this region,
比如 5級地震 for example, a magnitude five,
這些蛇就會爬出洞 then the snakes will come out of their holes
順著牆爬行 試圖逃脫 and crawl along the walls, trying to escape.
如果附近發生了大地震 If a major earthquake happens nearer,
蛇就會不停地 then the snakes would smash themselves
撞擊牆 against the wall continuously,
直到撞死為止 until they killed themselves.
它們對地震的反應很強烈 It has a very powerful effect on them.
我們希望它能提前3至5天產生反應 We'd like to see this happen three to five days in advance,
好讓我們有時間進行分析 then we'd have time to analyse it
作出一個準確的預測 and make an accurate prediction.
動物預報地震在中國並非毫無根據 Animal predictions aren't without foundation in China.
它們曾經拯救了成千上萬人的生命 They've been attributed to saving tens of thousands of lives
文革期間 在遼寧省海城市 At the height of the cultural revolution,
很多人報告看到動物行為反常 the city of Haicheng was evacuated
海城市政府因此 after many people reported
進行了人員疏散 seeing animals behaving strangely
幾天後 一場7級地震在此發生 When a magnitude seven earthquake struck days later,
海城市成為了 Haicheng was heralded
第一個成功採用 as the first time one of these disasters
動物預警災難的城市 had been predicted using animals.
但是從那以後 But since then,
這個歷史再也沒能被複製 no-one has ever been able to replicate the results.
據我所知 As far as I know,
研究這一領域的只有我一人 I'm the only person doing research in this area.
即便是在中國 Even in China.
我也能理解 I can understand
為什麼其他科學家不認可我的工作 why other scientists might not recognise my work,
但是我認為他們不相信我的原因 but I think the reason they distrust it is that
是因為他們自己沒有實踐過 they haven't done the practical experiments themselves.
如果有更多的觀測站 If we can have more observation stations,
我們的預測工作 then our predictions would be more scientific
將更加科學和準確 and more accurate.
一花獨放不是春 One flower doesn't make a spring,
百花齊放春滿園 but hundreds of flowers can definitely make spring.
在地震發生之前的幾小時或者幾天裡 In the hours, or days, before an earthquake,
並不僅僅只有動物受到了影響 it's not just animals that can be affected.
還有其他甚至更反常的現象 There's another even stranger phenomenon
可以用於地震預測 that can be used for prediction.
天空中出現的亮光 Bright lights that appear in the sky.
這張照片拍攝於1966年9月 This photograph was taken in September 1966,
日本松代地區 before an earthquake struck the town
地震發生之前 of Matsushiro, in Japan.
很多人都說看到了這些亮光 Many other people have reported seeing these lights,
但是沒人可以證實 but no-one has ever been able to prove
它們發生的原因 why they might happen.
然而今天 Today, however,
美國宇航局的物理學家斐迪曼•弗羅因德 NASA physicist Friedemann Freund
相信他可能已經找到了答案 believes he may have found the answer.
加里 閉合觸點的時候請告訴我 Gary, will you tell us when you make contact?
開始了 Now, it starts.
2005年 弗羅因德發現了一個奇怪的現象 In 2005, Freund made a peculiar discovery
如果撞擊一塊石頭接近達到其碎裂點時 that if you crush a rock to almost breaking point,
將產生一股微小的電流 it produces a tiny electrical current.
現在 我們讓這塊石頭 Now, we are already driving
產生了4納安培的電流 something like four nanoamps through this rock,
隨著壓力越來越大 the pressure increases more and more,
電流增加 the current increases,
現在壓力已經達到了最大值 now the pressure has already reached
電流會保持在這裡 its maximum value and the current will stay up there,
而且只要石頭仍有負荷 and as long as the load stays on the rock,
電流將會持續存在 the current will continue to flow,
我們相信這個實驗 and that is the simulation
模擬了地震發生前 for what we believe to be happening in the Earth
岩石斷裂前 prior to an earthquake,
地球所處的情況 before they rupture.
可以想像 If you can imagine
如果一塊1立方千米的岩石被加壓 that you have a cubic kilometre of rock being stressed or
電流會轉化成上千上萬 the currents translate into thousands, ten thousand,
甚至數十萬安培 sometimes hundreds of thousands of amperes
流出這1立方千米的岩石 that could flow out of a cubic kilometre of rock.
通過岩石產生的電流 The currents causing through the rock
能引起其他奇異的現象 can give rise to other oddities,
其中包括弗羅因德認為 including one that Freund believes
能解釋地震前天空中出現亮光的現象 may explain the lights in the sky before an earthquake.
如果現在周圍是黑的 If it were dark here,
我們將會看到這些岩石邊緣形成的 we would start seeing little flashes of light
微弱的閃光 forming along the edges of these rocks.
也許在自然界 Maybe in nature,
它們足夠強大 they are sufficiently strong
形成了在地震前 地震中 that they could become luminous phenomenon known
以及發生餘震時 as earthquake lights that can happen before earthquakes,
出現的被稱為地震光的明亮閃光 during earthquakes and also during the aftershock series.
你認為他們之間有聯繫 You think there's a connection between this and...?
是的 肯定有聯繫 Oh, yes, yes, there's definitely a connection.
斐迪曼•弗羅因德在與主流觀點的反對 Friedemann Freund is fighting a tide of opposition
作著鬥爭 from mainstream science,
但是他堅信自己是正確的 but he's convinced that he's right
並且準備為此傾其所有 and he's prepared to put his money where his mouth is.
到目前為止 我給你展示的這些 So far, everything that I've shown you
都是在實驗經費十分緊張的情況下完成的 was essentially done on a shoe-string budget,
其中傾入了很多私人的資金 with lots of private money going in there and very,
而來自政府方面的資助很少 very little funding from any government sources.
目前為止是誰在資助呢 Who's been funding it up until now?
大部分都是我自己掏的腰包 Well, I eventually paid most of it out of pocket,
我們獲得的資助還是非常非常少 we are still having a very, very minimal funding level.
你自己掏的腰包 Just out of your own wallet?
是的 我已經花費了近100萬美元 Yes, I've spent close to a million dollars
資助這個研究 因為沒人相信我 on funding this research, because nobody believed me.
那可是一大筆錢 That's a hell of a lot of money just to try and...
因為我知道我的研究方向是對的 Well, because I know that I'm on the right track,
我會堅持下去 走到最後 so I will pursue this and bring it to the end.
現在 人們開始聽我說的了 Now, people start to listen,
沒錯 他們現在相信了 and yes, now they are convinced.
有了這樣的支持聲 With something like this,
你很清楚你會成功的 as clear as you can hope you would get it.
科學界也許仍對斐迪曼•弗羅因德的 The scientific community may still be sceptical
岩石實驗持懷疑態度 about Friedemann Freund's rock experiments,
但是他的研究現在得到了一個商業化應用 but his research has now been used in a commercial application
震動探測儀 QuakeFinder
一種通過測量地面電磁變化 a device that measures electromagnetic
來預測地震發生的儀器 changes in the ground to sense if an earthquake is coming.
它從本質上來說是一種電腦系統 It's, er, basically, a computer system, er,
一組處理資料的電子元件 set of electronics to process the data, a
由一個簡單的手提電腦硬碟記錄資料 simple hard drive from a laptop to record it,
再由與之相連的無線電將資料 a radio link to bring it into, er,
傳送到二三百英尺外的農居裡 a farmer's house maybe 200, or 300 feet away,
然後由那裡的碟形衛星天線 and then we have a satellite dish that takes the data
通過衛星線路把資料傳送到帕羅奧多這裡 and brings it through a satellite link up to
我們現正所處的位置 our site here in Palo Alto.
震動探測儀還處於早期階段 It's still early days for QuakeFinder,
但它也許已取得零的突破 but it may have already had a minor breakthrough.
07年10月 In October 2007,
在阿藍岩發生地震前不久 這些儀器 the little white boxes picked up electromagnetic signals
接收到該地區的電磁信號 shortly before an earthquake struck Alum Rock.
那是一個位於三藩市南部的小鎮 A small community south of San Francisco.
如果你感興趣的話 This is the, er, the actual data from the,
這些都是阿藍岩地震的歷史資料 er, Alum Rock earthquake, if you're interested in that,
從這裡我們可以看到在地震之前 these are the days prior to the earthquake,
磁脈動的變化不大 so the, er, magnetic pulsations that we see are very,
波動很小 very few and far between,
這個大幅度波動是我們手動 this large one here is a calibration signal
生成的校準信號 that we generated ourselves
是為了檢測儀器是否正常運作 just to make sure everything was working ok.
大概在地震前兩周 About two weeks before the earthquake,
我們監測到振幅很大的磁脈動 we started to get these very large pulsations,
在接下來的幾天 波動漸趨頻密 the next few days, it got busier and busier,
每天的波動分佈更為頻繁 it spread out over more of the day,
直到地震發生 until finally, right there, the earthquake hit.
湯姆 當來自阿藍岩的資料不斷增多 But was there a moment, Tom, when this data was, you know,
你是否曾有一刻想到 more and more data's coming in from Alum Rock,
"唉呀 這次准是地震" were you thinking, "Crikey, this must be an earthquake?"
坦白說 沒有 I'll be honest with you, no.
因為我們仍致力於找出地震的模式 Because we're still trying to discover what the pattern is,
所以並不確定地震發生的時間 we're not quite sure how many days it should be there.
也就是說我們不知道將會發生 This was, we didn't know if it was a large earthquake
多大規模的地震 我們只知道 or a small earthquake, all we knew was that
某一地區將會發生地震 it was only happening at that one station,
而不是其他地區 not at any of the other stations.
要證實通過觀測岩石和動物預測地震的理論 It's going to take a great deal of research
科學家們還需要 and a lot more earthquakes
作更多的調查和研究 before theories about rocks or animals are ever proven.
但實際上 主流科學界已放棄 But mainstream science has practically given up
資助這些實驗 on funding these kinds of experiments,
很多地質學者甚至質疑預測的價值 and many geologists even question the value of prediction.
你知道後又能怎樣 如果我告訴你 Well, what would you do with it? Let's imagine I can tell you
一小時後將會發生地震 你會怎麼做 there'll be an earthquake in a hour, what would you do?
拿著你的攝影機 You'd get your camera out,
或錄影機逃生 or your tape recorder or something,
你會從身處的建築物裡逃出來 if you were in a building, you'd probably go outside
因為你認為建築物會倒塌 because you might think it's gonna fall down,
所以說預測的作用並不大 that's not particularly useful,
建築還是照樣會倒塌 這才是問題所在 the building is gonna fall down, that is the problem.
你寧願有一小時的逃生時間 Would you rather have an hour to get out of a building
還是建築物在地震中屹立不倒呢 or a building that didn't fall down in the first place?
當我們作出預測時 It's a real possibility
死在逃生路上的人數 that we'd have more people dying on the freeway
很有可能比在地震中 trying to get away when we made a prediction
遇害的人數要多 than we would have killed in the earthquake when it happened.
由於無法預測這些災難 Unable to predict these disasters,
加州成為了世界上 California has turned itself
最抗震的城市之一 into one of the most earthquake-proof places on the planet.
在洛杉磯 每一座摩天大廈 In Los Angeles, every new skyscraper
都是嚴格按照建築法規建造的 has been built following strict construction codes.
上百條高架高速路 Hundreds of freeway flyovers
都經過翻新和加固 have been retro-fitted and re-enforced,
隨著城市向周遭小郡的擴張 and as the city expands into the surrounding counties,
斷層線成為房地產選址 the fault lines are what matters
必須考慮的重要問題 when it comes to choosing real estate.
肯 你會住在斷層上嗎 Would you live directly on it, Ken?
不會 我們找房子的時候 No, when we were looking for a house,
看過一些建在 we looked at some houses
塞拉馬里斷層正上方的房子 that were right on top of the Sierra Madre fault
然後決定繼續找別的 and we decided to keep looking.
同樣地 當我們在看房子時 Similarly, when we were looking at the house,
我比其他人對房子結構的整體性 I was probably more interested in the structural integrity of it
和其構造更為關注 and the construction of it than most people would be.
地質學家肯•哈德納特在美國地質局工作 Geologist Ken Hudnut works for the US GS,
正在為洛杉磯的下一次強震作準備 preparing Los Angeles for the next big earthquake.
你可以看到那一片新開發區 You can see here a brand new development
正往上向著庫卡蒙加瀑布開發 going right up to the Cucamonga Falls.
我們認為 即使沒有聖安地列斯斷層 We think that that fault is capable of a magnitude 7.5,
那個斷層也能 7.6 earthquake on its own,
獨自引發7.5級或7.6級地震 without any involvement of the San Andreas Fault itself.
為了與斷層保持一定距離 That gap is there because
所以那片地空了出來 they have to set back away from the fault,
對於所有活躍斷層一律採取這種措施 that's the case for any fault that's considered active,
同時 本州法律規定 and by that, the state law says
規劃地必須與在近一萬年內發生過 if it has had surface faulting within the last 10,000 years
地表斷裂活動的地區保持距離 you need to set back from it.
中國的四川地震帶來的破壞 Over in China, the devastation in Sichuan Province
深刻揭示了建在地震斷層上的 serves as a stark reminder of the potential cost
建築物的潛在隱患 of building on earthquake faults.
麥克和劉靜來到白鹿鎮 Mike and Jing have come to Bailu, a mountain town
一個距離震中五十公里的小山鎮 around 50 kilometres from the earthquake's epicentre.
斷層貫穿整個山谷 The fault passes right through this valley,
直指小鎮的中學 heading straight for the town's middle school.
破壞力真是驚人 Well, this is quite something.
感謝幸運之神的眷顧 Thanks to an astonishing stroke of luck,
斷裂沒禍及兩座教學樓 the rupture missed both of the buildings containing classrooms,
但在操場盡頭 but at the end of the playground,
地震摧毀了一片房子 the earthquake demolished a block of housing,
幾位老師遇難 killing several teachers.
從社會角度出發 From a societal point of view,
我們很慶倖看到 what we would, er, be very happy about seeing here,
十分的慶倖 um, extraordinarily happy,
建在斷裂地帶兩邊的 is that these buildings that are built
建築物安然無恙 either side of the rupture didn't collapse,
而那邊的建築物除了玻璃被震毀以外 and that one over there appears to have very little damage,
只遭受到少許損壞 you know, apart from broken windows,
但斷裂帶穿過的地方 but, er, this rupture goes through
也就是以前的教師宿舍 what used to be the dormitory for the school teachers
現已被夷為平地 and that's completely gone.
所以首條教訓是 不要在斷裂地帶興建房屋 Um, so first lesson, don't build across a rupture.
學校現在已開放參觀 The school has now become a tourist attraction,
而麥克和劉靜根據地勢找到蛛絲馬跡 but Mike and Jing can see clues in the landscape
證明這場災難完全是可以避免的 that suggest this disaster could have been avoided.
事實上離教學大樓上遠一點的地方 The fact that beyond the school buildings,
地勢較高 說明這裡以前或是一個陡坎 the land is higher and it may be there was an old scarp here.
從地形上可以看出 在這個斷層的長期作用下 In the topography, you can see the long-term effect of this fault
山谷受到推擠而形成切口 slicing straight up that valley and giving that notch.
我們想讓中國政府知道的是 To be fair to the authorities,
這些山脈裡頭隱藏著許多 there are many fault scarps in these mountains
難以發現的斷層陡坎 and they're very, very difficult to find,
我們還處於起步階段 只找到其中幾處 we had only just begun to find some of them,
路漫漫其修遠兮 it takes a long and sustained effort.
加州的同行花了數十年 It took people in California decades to map out
才標注出斷層陡坎的精確位置 the fault scarps in any sort of precision.
地震迫使一千五百萬人背井離鄉 There were fifteen million people displaced by the earthquake.
中國政府無暇等待他們標注出 The Chinese authorities don't have time to wait
四川斷裂層的準確位置 until they've mapped the precise location of Sichuan's faults.
聽到有人喊"地震" If someone shouts "Earthquake,"
馬上用手抱著頭 put your hands on your heads.
抱著頭並躲到桌子下 Hands on your heads and hide under the desk.
許多學校現在所能做的就是 The best that many schools can do now is simply rehearse
進行簡單的防地震演習 for the moment an earthquake strikes again.
在四川其他地區 人們正迅速重建家園 Elsewhere in Sichuan, they're rebuilding at a rapid rate.
但大多數房屋的品質 But the vast majority of these new homes
並不足以抵抗另一次強震 won't be strong enough to survive another major earthquake.
對羅傑•比爾漢來說 建築品質低劣 For Roger Bilham, this is a problem
是發展中國家的通病 that's endemic throughout the developing world.
我可以指出這裡或那裡 地圖上 I can go here here, here OK, where my fingers stab the map,
我手指的地方周圍幾英尺內 there will be a magnitude seven earthquake within,
都有可能會發生七級地震 you know, a few inches of it,
未來三十年內 可能就在明年發生地震 in the next 30 years maybe in the next year.
我作過一個預測 如今 I've made a forecast that it's possible right now
一次地震就有可能奪去一百萬條生命 for one million people to be killed by a single earthquake, ok?
這是很可怕的事情 Now, that's a terrible thing to say
而且是史無前例的 and it's a thing that has no precedent,
過去不曾發生過 it's never happened in the past,
我憑什麼說出如此瘋狂的觀點 why can I make such a crazy statement?
因為在這條地震帶上的城市 Because there are now
史無前例地居住了高達八百萬 cities of eight and ten and twelve million people
一千萬 甚至一千二百萬的人 along this earthquake belt that have never been there in the past
這足以讓這些國家認識到 and that knowledge is sufficient, surely, to drive those countries,
加強建築物的抗震性 他們責無旁貸 if they're responsible to mandate earthquake resistance.
而這只需多花百分之十的資金 And it only costs about another 10% more.
也就是說 What it means is...
少買軍械 多買品質上乘的混凝土 buying fewer guns and better concrete instead.
現代地震學已有一百多年的歷史 Modern seismology has been with us for over 100 years,
但科學家們還是無法預測地震 but scientists are still no closer to predicting earthquakes.
儘管如此 他們並沒有完全放棄 However, they haven't completely given up.
從前他們以為能夠 But where they once thought it
提前幾個月預測地震 might be possible to predict months in advance,
現在 能提前幾秒鐘已是萬幸 now, it's come down to a matter of seconds.
我們正在為地震預警系統建造原型 We are prototyping earthquake early warning,
有時也稱它為即時預測 this is also sometimes called now casting,
因為它無法預報你地震的發生時間地點 because it's not saying there's going to be earthquake,
它只能告訴你地震已經發生 its rather saying an earthquake has already begun
然後我們在震波從震源移動到 and we're giving you that information before
該地區前給出預警信號 the waves have travelled from the fault to where you are.
預警系統由像這個位於 The warning system will start from stations like this,
聖安地列斯斷層的網站啟動 located along the San Andreas Fault.
利用高精度全球定位系統衛星 Instruments buried deep underground will track
深埋地底的儀器能追蹤到 how much the fault is moving,
斷層的移動程度 using high-precision GPS satellites.
天線藏在半球形外殼裡 The, er, antenna itself is inside of this hemispherical shell
它會不斷地自動追蹤 and it's constantly
來自全球定位系統衛星的無線電信號 locked onto the radio signals from the GPS satellites.
三腳架的每根腳都延伸到地下三十英尺 Each leg of this tripod goes down about 30 feet,
就是地下十米的地方 ten metres into the ground
牢固地附在基岩上 and firmly attached to the bedrock here.
要讓整個系統運行並運作起來 But to have this system up and running,
這些儀器必須能在地震的瞬間 these instruments need to be able to feed back data
及時回饋資料 the moment the ground starts to shake.
在聖安地列斯地震中 In a big San Andreas earthquake,
這個網站在約小於十秒的時間內 this station would move more than a metre
移動到一米以外的地方 within a matter of less than ten seconds,
所以其他類似的延聖安地列斯斷裂帶 so other stations like this positioned all along
設置的網站實際上也能 the San Andreas Fault could
起到追蹤斷裂活動的作用 actually track the rupture as it's progressing.
我們可以看到 從這裡開始是斷層 We're seeing it here coming up the fault
紅色部分表示重災區 and the red is where there's a lot of damage,
因此我們可以將網站安置在這個區域 so we could have used our stations in this area,
這時 地震剛開始二十秒 at this point, 20 seconds into the earthquake.
我們知道地震已經開始 Know that it's underway,
隨後地震會漸趨強烈 we've got a big earthquake started
在強震到達洛杉磯前我們能及時 and send that information to Los Angeles
發出預警信號 that the earthquake's underway.
我們或能做到提前一分鐘發出預警信號 We could potentially get up to a minute's warning.
如果這時你不巧正在電梯裡 You could hook this up to your elevator
你就有機會下降到最近的樓層 and have your elevator moved to the nearest floor
打開大門 那人們就不會 and open the doors, so people weren't trapped
在電力中斷後的幾天內被困 for the next few days after the power goes out.
我們可以敲響手術室的警鐘 We could ring an alarm in operating room,
那外科醫生就能暫停手術 so the surgeon pulls the scalpel out of your chest.
你可以敲響 You could ring an alarm
毒物處理室的警鐘 where they're handling toxic materials,
這樣就不會發生氯氣洩漏事故 so you're not pouring out chlorine.
你可以關閉重要的電腦設備 You could shut down critical computer facilities,
我們還可以停止鐵路運行 we could also be stopping any rail lines,
和在高速公路路邊螢幕上打出資訊 we could be flashing the messages up on freeways,
那你就明白 "地震即到 請慢行" you know, "Earthquake coming, slow down. "
即時預警不但比地震預測更高科技 Earthquake prediction doesn't come any more high-tech than this,
而且它可行 費用十分合理 and now casting is not only possible, it's surprisingly affordable.
民眾期望我們 Well, I think the public expects us
能夠預測地震 to be able to predict earthquakes,
我們實在是有心無力 and of course, we really can't.
我們只能做好力所能及的事情 But this is something that we can do,
我們掌握了技術 並進行測試 we have the technology,we've tested it,
開發出一套可行的系統 we've developed systems that work
其實我們有能力建立一個預警機制 and we know that we could build an early-warning system,
但在目前的情況下 at this point in time,
我們連做地震預警 we don't have nearly the instrumentation in place
所需的基本設備都沒有就位 to be able to do that kind of earthquake early warning,
估計整個預警系統耗資約一億美元 some estimates, we think it could cost about $100 million in all.
而我們估計聖安地列斯的一次大地震 And the price tag we're looking at
所造成的財產損失高達二千億美金 for a big earthquake on the San Andreas is, er, 200 billion and up,
所以一億美元換取一個能減少損失的系統 so a $100 million system to help reduce the damages
還是相當划算的 seems like a good investment.
這種預警系統 This kind of early-warning system
或許有天會在加州用上 might work for California one day,
但對於世界大多數地區而言 but for most places in the world,
面對地震威脅的最科學答案還是 science's best answer to the threat of earthquakes
修建更牢固的建築 is to construct better buildings
以及標注出斷層 確定潛在災區 and map all the faults in potential disaster zones.
掌握活躍斷層的 It's really important to know
具體位置是極其重要的 where these active faults are exactly,
即使無法預測地震 so that at least if you can't predict the earthquakes,
至少可以避免在斷層上蓋房 then we know where not to build.
但並非所有人都認為預測地震是不可能的 But not everyone thinks that prediction is totally dead,
我們仍暗下奢望未來某一天 there's still a sneaking hope that someone,
有人能找到地震學的 "聖杯" someday, may find the Holy Grail of seismology.
一些地震學者會說 "不 Some seismologists would say, "No,
這是不可能的 而我也不願意再繼續 it's impossible and I'm not willing to go that far,
因為我們不明白地震發生的具體原因 "Because we don't understand why exactly earthquakes happen,
正因為我們不明白 so if we don't understand that,
所以我們不能說地震是無法預測的" we can't say they're not predictable. "
這是個有趣的挑戰 我們或離答案更近 It's an interesting challenge, we might get closer to it,
顯然 有些東西 there are obviously certain things
我們要去學習並化為己用 we're going to learn and have learnt,
也許有一天 我們會幸運地發現 maybe one day,we'll get lucky and find
自己的研究方向是錯的 that we've been looking at the wrong thing,
但在當下 雖然我們所做的 but right now, whatever we do has resulted in,
均以失敗告終 但你要知道 well, I have to say failure, but you know,
我們在努力 也在盡己本分 we're trying, we're doing our bit,
我想終有一天會成功的 we think we'll get there one day.